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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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