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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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