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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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