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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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