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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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