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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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