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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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