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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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