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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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