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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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