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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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