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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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