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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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