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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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