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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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