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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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