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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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