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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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