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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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