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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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