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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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