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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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