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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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