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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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