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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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