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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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