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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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