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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
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