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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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