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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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