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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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