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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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