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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
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