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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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