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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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