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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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