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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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