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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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