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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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