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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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