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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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