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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 28 September 21
THE MAIDEN EDITION OF DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021 CONCLUDES SUCCESSFULLY
Press Release: DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021, a one-day conference on the recent technological advancements in the Industrial Diving industry conclud ...
Monday, 27 September 21
CHINESE COAL FIRMS MEET TO ADDRESS WINTER SUPPLY CHALLENGES - CNBC
Major Chinese coal producers are trying to resolve supply shortages and curb price rises as the country’s winter consumption peak approaches, ...
Saturday, 25 September 21
HIGH STAKES FOR ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK’S AMBITIOUS COAL POWER RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
Implementation challenges could block funding for other equally important high impact clean energy funding strategies
In the lead up ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
LONGER COAL CONTRACTS MAY REIN IN PRICES - ECNS
In China’s coal sector that has been marred recently by price surges, regional authorities and related enterprises should ensure the fuel con ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
BALTIC INDEX HITS 12-YEAR PEAK ON FIRMER VESSELS RATES - REUTERS
The Baltic Exchange’s main dry bulk sea freight index rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to a 12-year high, buoyed by higher rat ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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