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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
Tuesday, 05 October 21
CAPESIZE MARKET WAS IN A STEEP CLIMB FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The Capesize market was in a steep climb for most of this week as it reached a pinnacle of $74,786 Wednesday before stalling, regather ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: AUSTRALIA’S COAL ERA IS OVER - YAHOO!FINANCE
As the fringe of Australian politics strives to pump up the coal industry, facts show that coal production has started its long run decline.
&n ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
SURGING COAL PRICES SPLIT ASIAN BUYERS INTO RICH AND POOR - REUTERS
As seaborne coal in Asia trades at, or near, record highs, there are early signs of demand destruction, especially among price-sensitive buyers suc ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker Asset values have surprised to the upside, despite the downward pressure on the freight market. Tanker rates have been hovering close to the ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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