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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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