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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity a ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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