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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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