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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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