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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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