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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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