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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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