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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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