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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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