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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 20 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are moving towards the end of the year, the overall deal landscape of the dry bulk sector corresponding to the second half of 2020 (up to dat ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
COAL SQUEEZE INTENSIFIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The message from the top is clear: cut out coal. While the regulatory pressure has been evident for some time, the race to banish the black stuff s ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 128.72 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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