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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
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Friday, 23 October 20
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KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
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Friday, 23 October 20
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The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
INDIA: THE COMMERCIALISATION OF COAL BLOCKS WILL BENEFIT THE ECONOMY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
As the government of India receives 76 bids for 23 coal mines against the 38 up on auction, what does this commercialisation of coal block allocati ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- The University of Queensland
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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