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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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