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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA KICKS AN OWN GOAL WITH AUSTRALIAN COAL - FORBES
China’s annoyance at Australia’s hardline stance on political interference and demands for an independent inquiry into the root cause o ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MINISTER - INDONESIA JAN-OCT COAL OUTPUT AT 459 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the January to October period was 459 million tonnes, the country’s energy minister told parliament on Monday.
& ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
INDIA: MORE STEPS NEEDED TO MAKE COMMERCIAL COAL MINING ATTRACTIVE TO GLOBAL PLAYERS - LIVEMINT
India concluded its first commercial coal mine auctions earlier this month. A total of 19 coal mines spread across Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odish ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.38 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 129.21 points Monday, up 0.38 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea. LPG is a clean, energy efficient and portable fuel that is being marketed at an afforda ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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