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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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