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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
PANAMAX: THE OVERALL MARKET SEEMS TO BE UNDER NEGATIVE PRESSURE - ALLIED
Capesize
A rather indifferent week for the Capesize market, with BCI 5TC figure finishing the week with slight losses of 0.8%. The Atlantic enj ...
Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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