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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
PANAMAX: THE OVERALL MARKET SEEMS TO BE UNDER NEGATIVE PRESSURE - ALLIED
Capesize
A rather indifferent week for the Capesize market, with BCI 5TC figure finishing the week with slight losses of 0.8%. The Atlantic enj ...
Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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