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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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