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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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