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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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