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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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