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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
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Showing 706 to 710 news of total 6871 |
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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