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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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