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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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