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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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