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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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